Cookies on this website

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you click 'Accept all cookies' we'll assume that you are happy to receive all cookies and you won't see this message again. If you click 'Reject all non-essential cookies' only necessary cookies providing core functionality such as security, network management, and accessibility will be enabled. Click 'Find out more' for information on how to change your cookie settings.

Successful drug discovery is like finding oases of safety and efficacy in chemical and biological deserts. Screens in disease models, and other decision tools used in drug research and development (R&D), point towards oases when they score therapeutic candidates in a way that correlates with clinical utility in humans. Otherwise, they probably lead in the wrong direction. This line of thought can be quantified by using decision theory, in which ‘predictive validity’ is the correlation coefficient between the output of a decision tool and clinical utility across therapeutic candidates. Analyses based on this approach reveal that the detectability of good candidates is extremely sensitive to predictive validity, because the deserts are big and oases small. Both history and decision theory suggest that predictive validity is under-managed in drug R&D, not least because it is so hard to measure before projects succeed or fail later in the process. This article explains the influence of predictive validity on R&D productivity and discusses methods to evaluate and improve it, with the aim of supporting the application of more effective decision tools and catalysing investment in their creation.

Type

Journal article

Journal

Nature reviews drug discovery

Publisher

Nature Research (part of Springer Nature)

Publication Date

11/08/2022

Addresses

Duncan Richards, University of Oxford, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology, and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Botnar Research Centre, Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LP, Oxfordshire, Jack W. Scannell, University of Edinburgh, Science, Technology, and Innovation Studies, Edinburgh, Scotland, James Bosley, Nova Discovery, South Africa, John A Hickman, University of Manchester, School of Biological Sciences, Manchester, United Kingdom, Gerrard R. Dawson, P1vital Ltd, Manor House, Wallingford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BA, United Kingdom, Hubert Truebel, The Knowledge House GmbH, 363 Rider Ave 3rd floor,, New York, NY 10451, United States, Guilherme S. Ferreira, 3D-PharmXchange, Maidstone 48a, 5026 SK Tilburg,, Tilburg, North Brabant, Netherlands, J. Mark Treherne, Talisman Therapeutics Ltd, Jonas Webb Building Babraham Research Campus, Cambridge, CB22 3AT, United Kingdom

Keywords

Drug Discovery