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Models for estimating an individual's risk of having or developing a disease are abundant in the medical literature, yet many do not meet the methodological standards that have been set to maximise generalisability and utility. This paper presents an overview of ten steps from the conception of the study to the implementation of the risk model and discusses common pitfalls. We discuss crucial aspects of study design, data collection, model development and performance evaluation, and discuss how to bring the model to clinical practice. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: We present an overview of ten key steps for the development of risk models and discuss common pitfalls.

Original publication

DOI

10.1111/1471-0528.14170

Type

Journal article

Journal

Bjog

Publication Date

02/2017

Volume

124

Pages

423 - 432

Keywords

Clinical prediction model, logistic regression, model development, model reporting, model validation, risk model, Humans, Models, Statistical, Reproducibility of Results, Research Design, Risk Assessment