Approximately 40% of patients with rheumatoid arthritis do not respond to individual biologic therapies, while biomarkers predictive of treatment response are lacking. Here we analyse RNA-sequencing (RNA-Seq) of pre-treatment synovial tissue from the biopsy-based, precision-medicine STRAP trial (n = 208), to identify gene response signatures to the randomised therapies: etanercept (TNF-inhibitor), tocilizumab (interleukin-6 receptor inhibitor) and rituximab (anti-CD20 B-cell depleting antibody). Machine learning models applied to RNA-Seq predict clinical response to etanercept, tocilizumab and rituximab at the 16-week primary endpoint with area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.763, 0.748 and 0.754 respectively (n = 67-72) as determined by repeated nested cross-validation. Prediction models for tocilizumab and rituximab are validated in an independent cohort (R4RA): AUC 0.713 and 0.786 respectively (n = 65-68). Predictive signatures are converted for use with a custom synovium-specific 524-gene nCounter panel and retested on synovial biopsy RNA from STRAP patients, demonstrating accurate prediction of treatment response (AUC 0.82-0.87). The converted models are combined into a unified clinical decision algorithm that has the potential to transform future clinical practice by assisting the selection of biologic therapies.
Journal article
Nature communications
07/2025
16
Centre for Experimental Medicine & Rheumatology, William Harvey Research Institute, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK. myles.lewis@qmul.ac.uk.
STRAP collaborative group, Synovial Membrane, Humans, Arthritis, Rheumatoid, Antirheumatic Agents, Biopsy, Treatment Outcome, Gene Expression Profiling, Aged, Middle Aged, Female, Male, Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized, Transcriptome, Machine Learning, Rituximab, Precision Medicine, Etanercept