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Prognostic models are abundant in the medical literature yet their use in practice seems limited. In this article, the third in the PROGRESS series, the authors review how such models are developed and validated, and then address how prognostic models are assessed for their impact on practice and patient outcomes, illustrating these ideas with examples.

Original publication




Journal article


Plos med

Publication Date





Biomarkers, Biomedical Research, Decision Support Techniques, Disease Progression, Health Services Research, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Reproducibility of Results, Research Design, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Treatment Outcome