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Patient-Reported Outcomes as Independent Prognostic Factors for Survival in Oncology: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.
OBJECTIVES: Assessment of patient-reported outcomes (PROs) in oncology is of critical importance because it provides unique information that may also predict clinical outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of prognostic factor studies to examine the prognostic value of PROs for survival in cancer. A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed for studies published between 2013 and 2018. We considered any study, regardless of the research design, that included at least 1 PRO domain in the final multivariable prognostic model. The protocol (EPIPHANY) was published and registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42018099160). RESULTS: Eligibility criteria selected 138 studies including 158 127 patients, of which 43 studies were randomized, controlled trials. Overall, 120 (87%) studies reported at least 1 PRO to be statistically significantly prognostic for overall survival. Lung (n = 41, 29.7%) and genitourinary (n = 27, 19.6%) cancers were most commonly investigated. The prognostic value of PROs was investigated in secondary data analyses in 101 (73.2%) studies. The EORTC QLQ-C30 questionnaire was the most frequently used measure, and its physical functioning scale (range 0-100) the most frequent independent prognostic PRO, with a pooled hazard ratio estimate of 0.88 per 10-point increase (95% CI 0.84-0.92). CONCLUSIONS: There is convincing evidence that PROs provide independent prognostic information for overall survival across cancer populations and disease stages. Further research is needed to translate current evidence-based data into prognostic tools to aid in clinical decision making.
Open science practices need substantial improvement in prognostic model studies in oncology using machine learning.
OBJECTIVE: To describe the frequency of open science practices in a contemporary sample of studies developing prognostic models using machine learning methods in the field of oncology. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We conducted a systematic review, searching the MEDLINE database between December 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, for studies developing a multivariable prognostic model using machine learning methods (as defined by the authors) in oncology. Two authors independently screened records and extracted open science practices. RESULTS: We identified 46 publications describing the development of a multivariable prognostic model. The adoption of open science principles was poor. Only one study reported availability of a study protocol, and only one study was registered. Funding statements and conflicts of interest statements were common. Thirty-five studies (76%) provided data sharing statements, with 21 (46%) indicating data were available on request to the authors and seven declaring data sharing was not applicable. Two studies (4%) shared data. Only 12 studies (26%) provided code sharing statements, including 2 (4%) that indicated the code was available on request to the authors. Only 11 studies (24%) provided sufficient information to allow their model to be used in practice. The use of reporting guidelines was rare: eight studies (18%) mentioning using a reporting guideline, with 4 (10%) using the Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis statement, 1 (2%) using Minimum Information About Clinical Artificial Intelligence Modeling and Consolidated Standards Of Reporting Trials-Artificial Intelligence, 1 (2%) using Strengthening The Reporting Of Observational Studies In Epidemiology, 1 (2%) using Standards for Reporting Diagnostic Accuracy Studies, and 1 (2%) using Transparent Reporting of Evaluations with Nonrandomized Designs. CONCLUSION: The adoption of open science principles in oncology studies developing prognostic models using machine learning methods is poor. Guidance and an increased awareness of benefits and best practices of open science are needed for prediction research in oncology.
Platelet rich plasma injection for acute Achilles tendon rupture: PATH-2 randomised, placebo controlled, superiority trial.
OBJECTIVE: To determine whether an injection of platelet rich plasma improves outcomes after acute Achilles tendon rupture. DESIGN: Randomised, placebo controlled, two arm, parallel group, participant and assessor masked, superiority trial. SETTING: Secondary care trauma units across 19 hospitals in the United Kingdom's health service. PARTICIPANTS: Recruitment commenced in July 2015 and follow-up was completed in March 2018. 230 adults aged 18 years and over were included, with acute Achilles tendon rupture presenting within 12 days of injury and managed with non-surgical treatment. Exclusions were injury at the insertion or musculotendinous junction, major leg injury or deformity, diabetes mellitus, platelet or haematological disorder, systemic corticosteroids, anticoagulation treatment, and other contraindicating conditions. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomised 1:1 to platelet rich plasma (n=114) or placebo (dry needle; n=116) injection. All participants received standard rehabilitation care (ankle immobilisation followed by physiotherapy). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Primary outcome was muscle tendon function at 24 weeks, measured objectively with the limb symmetry index (injured/uninjured×100) in maximal work done during the heel rise endurance test (an instrumented measure of repeated single leg heel rises until fatigue). Secondary outcomes included patient reported function (Achilles tendon rupture score), quality of life (short form 12 version 2®), pain (visual analogue scale), goal attainment (patient specific functional scale), and adverse events. A central laboratory analysed the quality and content of platelet rich plasma. Analyses were by modified intention to treat. RESULTS: Participants were 46 years old on average, and 57 (25%) of 230 were female. At 24 weeks, 202 (88%) participants completed the heel rise endurance test and 216 (94%) the patient reported outcomes. The platelet rich plasma was of good quality, with expected growth factor content. No difference was detected in muscle tendon function between participants receiving platelet rich plasma injections and those receiving placebo injections (limb symmetry index, mean 34.7% (standard deviation 17.7%) v 38.5% (22.8%); adjusted mean difference -3.9% (95% confidence interval -10.5% to 2.7%)) or in any secondary outcomes or adverse event rates. Complier average causal effect analyses gave similar findings. CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence to indicate that injections of platelet rich plasma can improve objective muscle tendon function, patient reported function, or quality of life after acute Achilles tendon rupture compared with placebo, or that they offer any patient benefit. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN54992179.
Prognostic factors for recovery following acute lateral ankle ligament sprain: a systematic review.
BACKGROUND: One-third of individuals who sustain an acute lateral ankle ligament sprain suffer significant disability due to pain, functional instability, mechanical instability or recurrent sprain after recovery plateaus at 1 to 5 years post injury. The identification of early prognostic factors associated with poor recovery may provide an opportunity for early-targeted intervention and improve outcome. METHODS: We performed a comprehensive search of AMED, EMBASE, Psych Info, CINAHL, SportDiscus, PubMed, CENTRAL, PEDro, OpenGrey, abstracts and conference proceedings from inception to September 2016. Prospective studies investigating the association between baseline prognostic factors and recovery over time were included. Two independent assessors performed the study selection, data extraction and quality assessment of the studies. A narrative synthesis is presented due to inability to meta-analyse results due to clinical and statistical heterogeneity. RESULTS: The search strategy yielded 3396 titles/abstracts after duplicates were removed. Thirty-six full text articles were then assessed, nine of which met the study inclusion criteria. Six were prospective cohorts, and three were secondary analyses of randomised controlled trials. Results are presented for nine studies that presented baseline prognostic factors for recovery after an acute ankle sprain. Age, female gender, swelling, restricted range of motion, limited weight bearing ability, pain (at the medial joint line and on weight-bearing dorsi-flexion at 4 weeks, and pain at rest at 3 months), higher injury severity rating, palpation/stress score, non-inversion mechanism injury, lower self-reported recovery, re-sprain within 3 months, MRI determined number of sprained ligaments, severity and bone bruise were found to be independent predictors of poor recovery. Age was one prognostic factor that demonstrated a consistent association with outcome in three studies, however cautious interpretation is advised. CONCLUSIONS: The associations between prognostic factors and poor recovery after an acute lateral ankle sprain are largely inconclusive. At present, there is insufficient evidence to recommend any factor as an independent predictor of outcome. There is a need for well-conducted prospective cohort studies with adequate sample size and long-term follow-up to provide robust evidence on prognostic factors of recovery following an acute lateral ankle sprain. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Prospero registration: CRD42014014471.
Cast versus functional brace in the rehabilitation of patients treated non-operatively for a rupture of the Achilles tendon: protocol for the UK study of tendo achilles rehabilitation (UK STAR) multi-centre randomised trial.
INTRODUCTION: Achilles tendon rupture affects over 11 000 people yearly in the UK, and the incidence is increasing. Controversy remains with regard to the best rehabilitation strategy for these patients. In operatively treated patients, functional bracing provides better outcomes compared with plaster casts. However, the role of functional bracing in non-operatively managed patients is unclear. This is the protocol for a multicentre randomised trial of plaster cast immobilisation versus functional bracing for patients with a non-operatively managed Achilles tendon rupture. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: All adults presenting with a primary rupture of the Achilles tendon will be screened. Non-operatively treated patients will be eligible to take part in the trial. Broad eligibility criteria will ensure that the results of the study can be generalised to the wider patient population. Randomisation will be on a 1:1 basis. Both rehabilitation strategies are widely used within the National Health Service. Standardised protocols will be followed, and details of plaster material and brace will be as per the site's usual practice.A minimum of 330 patients will be randomised to obtain 90% power to detect a difference of 8 points in Achilles Tendon Total Rupture Score at 9 months. Quality of life and resource use will be collected at 3, 6 and 9 months. The differences between treatment groups will be assessed on an intention-to-treat basis. The results of the trial-based economic evaluation will be expressed in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The National Research Ethic Committee approved this study on 18 March 2016 (16/SC/0109).The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment monograph and a manuscript to a peer-reviewed journal will be submitted on completion of the trial (summer 2019). The results of this trial will substantially inform clinical practice on the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the treatment of this injury. This study has been registered on the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number registry with reference no ISRCTN62639639.
Platelet rich Plasma in Achilles Tendon Healing 2 (PATH-2) trial: protocol for a multicentre, participant and assessor-blinded, parallel-group randomised clinical trial comparing platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection versus placebo injection for Achilles tendon rupture.
BACKGROUND: Achilles tendon injuries give rise to substantial long-lasting morbidity and pose considerable challenges for clinicians and patients during the lengthy healing period. Current treatment strategies struggle to curb the burden of this injury on health systems and society due to lengthy rehabilitation, work absence and reinjury risk. Platelet-rich plasma (PRP) is an autologous preparation that has been shown to improve the mechanobiological properties of tendons in laboratory and animal studies. The use of PRP in musculoskeletal injuries is on the increase despite the lack of adequately powered clinical studies. METHODS AND DESIGN: This is a multicentre randomised controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy and mechanism of PRP in patients with acute Achilles tendon rupture (ATR). All adults with acute ATR presenting within 12 days of the injury who are to be treated non-operatively are eligible. A total of 230 consenting patients will be randomly allocated via a remote web-based service to receive PRP injection or placebo injection to the site of the injury. All participants will be blinded to the intervention and will receive standardised rehabilitation to reduce efficacy interference.Participants will be followed up with blinded assessments of muscle-tendon function, quality of life, pain and overall patient's functional goals at 4, 7, 13, 24 weeks and 24 months post-treatment. The primary outcome is the heel-rise endurance test (HRET), which will be supervised by a blinded assessor at 24 weeks. A subgroup of 16 participants in one centre will have needle biopsy under ultrasound guidance at 6 weeks. Blood and PRP will be analysed for cell count, platelet activation and growth factor concentrations. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The protocol has been approved by the Oxfordshire Research Ethics Committee (Oxfordshire Research Ethics Committee A, reference no 14/SC/1333). The trial will be reported in accordance with the CONSORT statement and published in peer-reviewed scientific journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN: 54992179, assigned 12 January 2015. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02302664, received 18 November 2014. UK Clinical Research Network Study Portfolio Database: ID 17850.
Prediction models for cardiovascular disease risk in the general population: systematic review.
OBJECTIVE: To provide an overview of prediction models for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: Medline and Embase until June 2013. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION: Studies describing the development or external validation of a multivariable model for predicting CVD risk in the general population. RESULTS: 9965 references were screened, of which 212 articles were included in the review, describing the development of 363 prediction models and 473 external validations. Most models were developed in Europe (n=167, 46%), predicted risk of fatal or non-fatal coronary heart disease (n=118, 33%) over a 10 year period (n=209, 58%). The most common predictors were smoking (n=325, 90%) and age (n=321, 88%), and most models were sex specific (n=250, 69%). Substantial heterogeneity in predictor and outcome definitions was observed between models, and important clinical and methodological information were often missing. The prediction horizon was not specified for 49 models (13%), and for 92 (25%) crucial information was missing to enable the model to be used for individual risk prediction. Only 132 developed models (36%) were externally validated and only 70 (19%) by independent investigators. Model performance was heterogeneous and measures such as discrimination and calibration were reported for only 65% and 58% of the external validations, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: There is an excess of models predicting incident CVD in the general population. The usefulness of most of the models remains unclear owing to methodological shortcomings, incomplete presentation, and lack of external validation and model impact studies. Rather than developing yet another similar CVD risk prediction model, in this era of large datasets, future research should focus on externally validating and comparing head-to-head promising CVD risk models that already exist, on tailoring or even combining these models to local settings, and investigating whether these models can be extended by addition of new predictors.
The reliability and validity of the Figure of 8 Walk test in older people with knee replacement: does the setting have an impact?
OBJECTIVE: To determine the reliability and validity of the Figure of 8 Walk test (F8W) for older people after knee replacement surgery in the home setting. DESIGN: Observational repeated measures. SETTING: A specialist orthopaedic hospital and participants homes. PARTICIPANTS: Seventy-four older adults aged over 55 years one year following knee replacement surgery participated in two assessments more than one week apart. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The time to complete, steps, boundary limits and smoothness score from the Figure of 8 Walk test (F8W), the time to complete the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test and the time to complete the Timed Walk Test (TWT). RESULTS: Overall, on 95% of occasions, the difference between the measurements for intra-rater reliability were within 1.8second of the two test times. The difference between the measurements for inter-rater reliability were found to be narrower than for intra-rater reliability with scores within 1.2second overall on 95% of occasions. The time to perform the F8W was highly correlated to the Timed Up and Go (overall sample r=0.921) and the variability spread within narrow limits (-0.8 to 0.8 z-scores). This was also true for the Timed Walk Test (overall sample r=0.834) with a narrow limit of variability on almost all of the observations (-1.16 to 1.16 z-scores). CONCLUSIONS: The F8W test has good reliability and validity when used in either a clinical or home setting for patients around one year following knee replacement surgery.
Platelet-rich plasma in Achilles tendon healing 2 (PATH-2) trial: statistical analysis plan for a multicentre, double-blinded, parallel-group, placebo-controlled randomised clinical trial.
BACKGROUND: There has been a recent steep growth in platelet-rich plasma (PRP) use for musculoskeletal conditions, but findings from high quality clinical trial data are lacking in the literature. Here, we describe the statistical analysis plan (SAP) for the Platelet-rich plasma in Achilles Tendon Healing 2 (PATH-2) trial. METHODS: PATH-2 is a pragmatic, parallel-group, multi-centre, double-blinded, randomised, placebo-controlled, superiority trial. The study aims to evaluate the clinical efficacy of PRP in acute Achilles tendon rupture in terms of muscle-tendon function. Patients are identified in the orthopaedic/trauma outpatient clinic. The primary outcome is muscle-tendon work capacity from the Heel Rise Endurance Test result, expressed as the Limb Symmetry Index (work, in joules), at 24 weeks post randomisation. Multivariate linear regression adjusting for the stratification factors (centre and age) and additional prognostic factors will be used to investigate the adjusted effect of the intervention. The analysis will be by modified intention-to-treat. Sensitivity analysis will assess the internal validity of the trial results by performing a per-protocol analysis. Safety will be summarised by treatment arm for all patients who started treatment. Secondary patient-reported outcome measures will be analysed using linear mixed effects models to allow all data collected at all follow-up points to be considered. Missing data will be summarised and reported by treatment arm. Missing data imputation will be performed, if appropriate. DISCUSSION: The PATH-2 trial will be reported in accordance with the CONSORT statement. This SAP publication will avoid bias arising from prior knowledge of the study results. Any changes or deviations from the current SAP will be described and justified in the final report. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registry: ISRCTN54992179 , assigned 12 January 2015. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02302664, received 18 November 2014. UK Clinical Research Network Study Portfolio Database: ID 17850.
Reporting guidelines used varying methodology to develop recommendations.
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: We investigated the developing methods of reporting guidelines in the EQUATOR (Enhancing the QUAlity and Transparency Of health Research) Network's database. METHODS: In October 2018, we screened all records and excluded those not describing reporting guidelines from further investigation. Twelve researchers performed duplicate data extraction on bibliometrics, scope, development methods, presentation, and dissemination of all publications. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the findings. RESULTS: Of the 405 screened records, 262 described a reporting guidelines development. The number of reporting guidelines increased over the past 3 decades, from 5 in the 1990s and 63 in the 2000s to 157 in the 2010s. Development groups included 2-151 people. Literature appraisal was performed during the development of 56% of the reporting guidelines; 33% used surveys to gather external opinion on items to report; and 42% piloted or sought external feedback on their recommendations. Examples of good reporting for all reporting items were presented in 30% of the reporting guidelines. Eighteen percent of the reviewed publications included some level of spin. CONCLUSION: Reporting guidelines have been developed with varying methodology. Reporting guideline developers should use existing guidance and take an evidence-based approach, rather than base their recommendations on expert opinion of limited groups of individuals.
Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1): from development to external validation.
Evaluating the performance of a clinical prediction model is crucial to establish its predictive accuracy in the populations and settings intended for use. In this article, the first in a three part series, Collins and colleagues describe the importance of a meaningful evaluation using internal, internal-external, and external validation, as well as exploring heterogeneity, fairness, and generalisability in model performance.
Reminding Peer Reviewers of Reporting Guideline Items to Improve Completeness in Published Articles: Primary Results of 2 Randomized Trials.
IMPORTANCE: Numerous studies have shown that adherence to reporting guidelines is suboptimal. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether asking peer reviewers to check if specific reporting guideline items were adequately reported would improve adherence to reporting guidelines in published articles. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Two parallel-group, superiority randomized trials were performed using manuscripts submitted to 7 biomedical journals (5 from the BMJ Publishing Group and 2 from the Public Library of Science) as the unit of randomization, with peer reviewers allocated to the intervention or control group. INTERVENTIONS: The first trial (CONSORT-PR) focused on manuscripts that presented randomized clinical trial (RCT) results and reported following the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) guideline, and the second trial (SPIRIT-PR) focused on manuscripts that presented RCT protocols and reported following the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials (SPIRIT) guideline. The CONSORT-PR trial included manuscripts that described RCT primary results (submitted July 2019 to July 2021). The SPIRIT-PR trial included manuscripts that contained RCT protocols (submitted June 2020 to May 2021). Manuscripts in both trials were randomized (1:1) to the intervention or control group; the control group received usual journal practice. In the intervention group of both trials, peer reviewers received an email from the journal that asked them to check whether the 10 most important and poorly reported CONSORT (for CONSORT-PR) or SPIRIT (for SPIRIT-PR) items were adequately reported in the manuscript. Peer reviewers and authors were not informed of the purpose of the study, and outcome assessors were blinded. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The difference in the mean proportion of adequately reported 10 CONSORT or SPIRIT items between the intervention and control groups in published articles. RESULTS: In the CONSORT-PR trial, 510 manuscripts were randomized. Of those, 243 were published (122 in the intervention group and 121 in the control group). A mean proportion of 69.3% (95% CI, 66.0%-72.7%) of the 10 CONSORT items were adequately reported in the intervention group and 66.6% (95% CI, 62.5%-70.7%) in the control group (mean difference, 2.7%; 95% CI, -2.6% to 8.0%). In the SPIRIT-PR trial, of the 244 randomized manuscripts, 178 were published (90 in the intervention group and 88 in the control group). A mean proportion of 46.1% (95% CI, 41.8%-50.4%) of the 10 SPIRIT items were adequately reported in the intervention group and 45.6% (95% CI, 41.7% to 49.4%) in the control group (mean difference, 0.5%; 95% CI, -5.2% to 6.3%). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These 2 randomized trials found that it was not useful to implement the tested intervention to increase reporting completeness in published articles. Other interventions should be assessed and considered in the future. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: NCT05820971 (CONSORT-PR) and NCT05820984 (SPIRIT-PR).
External validation of models to estimate gestational age in the second and third trimester using ultrasound: A prospective multicentre observational study.
OBJECTIVES: Accurate assessment of gestational age (GA) is important at both individual and population levels. The most accurate way to estimate GA in women who book late in pregnancy is unknown. The aim of this study was to externally validate the accuracy of equations for GA estimation in late pregnancy and to identify the best equation for estimating GA in women who do not receive an ultrasound scan until the second or third trimester. DESIGN: This was a prospective, observational cross-sectional study. SETTING: 57 prenatal care centres, France. PARTICIPANTS: Women with a singleton pregnancy and a previous 11-14-week dating scan that gave the observed GA were recruited over an 8-week period. They underwent a standardised ultrasound examination at one time point during the pregnancy (15-43 weeks), measuring 12 foetal biometric parameters that have previously been identified as useful for GA estimation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: A total of 189 equations that estimate GA based on foetal biometry were examined and compared with GA estimation based on foetal CRL. Comparisons between the observed GA and the estimated GA were made using R2, calibration slope and intercept. RMSE, mean difference and 95% range of error were also calculated. RESULTS: A total of 2741 pregnant women were examined. After exclusions, 2339 participants were included. In the 20 best performing equations, the intercept ranged from -0.22 to 0.30, the calibration slope from 0.96 to 1.03 and the RSME from 0.67 to 0.87. Overall, multiparameter models outperformed single-parameter models. Both the 95% range of error and mean difference increased with gestation. Commonly used models based on measurement of the head circumference alone were not amongst the best performing models and were associated with higher 95% error and mean difference. CONCLUSIONS: We provide strong evidence that GA-specific equations based on multiparameter models should be used to estimate GA in late pregnancy. However, as all methods of GA assessment in late pregnancy are associated with large prediction intervals, efforts to improve access to early antenatal ultrasound must remain a priority. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The proposal for this study and the corresponding methodological review was registered on PROSPERO international register of systematic reviews (registration number: CRD4201913776).
Plaster cast versus functional bracing for Achilles tendon rupture: the UKSTAR RCT.
BACKGROUND: Achilles tendon rupture affects > 11,000 people each year in the UK, leading to prolonged periods away from work, sports and social activities. Traditionally, the ruptured tendon is held still in a plaster cast for ≥ 8 weeks. Functional bracing is an alternative treatment that allows patients to mobilise earlier, but there is little evidence about how bracing affects patients' recovery. OBJECTIVES: To measure the Achilles Tendon Rupture Score, quality of life, complications and resource use of patients receiving non-operative treatment for an Achilles tendon rupture treated with plaster cast compared with those treated with functional bracing. DESIGN: This was a multicentre, randomised, pragmatic, two-group superiority trial. SETTING: The setting was 39 NHS hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 540 adult patients treated non-operatively for Achilles tendon rupture were randomised from July 2016 to May 2018. Exclusion criteria included presenting after 14 days, having had previous rupture and being unable to complete questionnaires. INTERVENTIONS: A total of 266 participants had a plaster cast applied, with their toes initially pointing to the floor. The cast was changed over 8 weeks to bring the foot into a walking position. A total of 274 patients had a functional brace that facilitated immediate weight-bearing. The foot position was adjusted within the brace over the same 8-week period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Achilles Tendon Rupture Score is patient reported and assesses symptoms and physical activity related to the Achilles tendon (score 0-100, with 100 being the best possible outcome). The secondary outcomes were quality of life, complications and resource use at 8 weeks and at 3, 6 and 9 months. RESULTS: Participants had a mean age of 48.7 years, were predominantly male (79%) and had ruptured their tendon during sports (70%). Over 93% of participants completed follow-up. There was no statistically significant difference in Achilles Tendon Rupture Score at 9 months post injury (-1.38, 95% confidence interval -4.9 to 2.1). There was a statistically significant difference in Achilles Tendon Rupture Score at 8 weeks post injury in favour of the functional brace group (5.53, 95% confidence interval 2.0 to 9.1), but not at 3 or 6 months post injury. Quality of life showed the same pattern, with a statistically significant difference at 8 weeks post injury but not at later time points. Complication profiles were similar in both groups. Re-rupture of the tendon occurred 17 times in the plaster cast group and 13 times in the functional brace group. There was no difference in resource use. CONCLUSIONS: This trial provides strong evidence that early weight-bearing in a functional brace provides similar outcomes to traditional plaster casting and is safe for patients receiving non-operative treatment of Achilles tendon rupture. The probability that functional bracing is cost-effective exceeds 95% for the base-case imputed analysis, assuming a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. On average, functional brace is associated with lower costs (-£103, 95% confidence interval -£290 to £84) and more quality-adjusted life-years (0.015, 95% confidence interval -0.0013 to 0.030) than plaster cast. LIMITATIONS: Some patients declined to participate in the trial, but only a small proportion of these declined because they had a preference for one treatment or another. Overall, 58% of eligible patients agreed to participate, so the participants are broadly representative of the population under investigation. FUTURE WORK: Although the UK Study of Tendo Achilles Rehabilitation provides guidance with regard to early management, rehabilitation following Achilles tendon rupture is prolonged and further research is required to define the optimal mode of rehabilitation after the initial cast/brace has been removed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN62639639. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 8. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
Association between trial registration and positive study findings: cross sectional study (Epidemiological Study of Randomized Trials-ESORT).
Objective To assess whether randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that were registered were less likely to report positive study findings compared with RCTs that were not registered and whether the association varied by funding source.Design Cross sectional study.Study sample All primary RCTs published in December 2012 and indexed in PubMed by November 2013. Trial registration was determined based on the report of a trial registration number in published RCTs or the identification of the trial in a search of trial registries. Trials were separated into prospectively and retrospectively registered studies.Main outcome measure Association between trial registration and positive study findings.Results 1122 eligible RCTs were identified, of which 593 (52.9%) were registered and 529 (47.1%) were not registered. Overall, registration was marginally associated with positive study findings (adjusted risk ratio 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.98), even with stratification as prospectively and retrospectively registered trials (0.87, 0.74 to 1.03 and 0.88, 0.78 to 1.00, respectively). The interaction term between overall registration and funding source was marginally statistically significant and relative risk estimates were imprecise (0.75, 0.63 to 0.89 for non-industry funded and 1.03, 0.79 to 1.36 for industry funded, P interaction=0.046). Furthermore, a statistically significant interaction was not maintained in sensitivity analyses. Within each stratum of funding source, relative risk estimates were also imprecise for the association between positive study findings and prospective and retrospective registration.Conclusion Among published RCTs, there was little evidence of a difference in positive study findings between registered and non-registered clinical trials, even with stratification by timing of registration. Relative risk estimates were imprecise in subgroups of non-industry and industry funded trials.
Clinical and cost-effectiveness of progressive exercise compared with best practice advice, with or without corticosteroid injection, for the treatment of rotator cuff disorders: protocol for a 2x2 factorial randomised controlled trial (the GRASP trial).
INTRODUCTION: Shoulder pain is very common, with around 70% of cases due to disorders of the rotator cuff. Despite widespread provision of physiotherapy, there is uncertainty about which type of exercise and delivery mechanisms are associated with best outcomes. There is also uncertainty around the long-term benefits and harms of corticosteroid injection therapy, which is often used in addition to physiotherapy. The Getting it Right: Addressing Shoulder Pain trial will assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of individually tailored, progressive exercise compared with best practice advice, with or without corticosteroid injection, in adults with a rotator cuff disorder. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We are conducting a large multicentre randomised controlled trial (2×2 factorial design). We will recruit adults ≥18 years with a new episode of shoulder pain attributable to a rotator cuff disorder as per British Elbow and Shoulder Society guidelines, not currently receiving physiotherapy or being considered for surgery, from at least eight UK National Health Service primary care-based musculoskeletal and related physiotherapy services. Participants (n=704) will be randomised (centralised computer-generated 1:1:1:1 allocation ratio) to one of four interventions: (1) progressive exercise (≤6 physiotherapy sessions); (2) best practice advice (one physiotherapy session); (3) corticosteroid injection then progressive exercise (≤6 sessions) or (4) corticosteroid injection then best practice advice (one session). The primary outcome is the mean difference in Shoulder Pain and Disability Index (SPADI) total score at 12 months. Secondary outcomes are: pain and function SPADI subdomains; health-related quality of life (Five-Level version of the EuroQol EQ-5D-5L); sleep disturbance; return to activity; global impression of change; health resource use; out-of-pocket expenses; work disability. A parallel within-trial economic evaluation will be conducted. The primary analysis will be intention to treat. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Research Ethics Committee approval (REC: 16/SC/0508) has been obtained. Results of the main trial and secondary outcomes will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN16539266; EudraCT number: 2016-002991-28.