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Azithromycin versus standard care in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 (ATOMIC2): an open-label, randomised trial.
BACKGROUND: The antibacterial, anti-inflammatory, and antiviral properties of azithromycin suggest therapeutic potential against COVID-19. Randomised data in mild-to-moderate disease are not available. We assessed whether azithromycin is effective in reducing hospital admission in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. METHODS: This prospective, open-label, randomised superiority trial was done at 19 hospitals in the UK. We enrolled adults aged at least 18 years presenting to hospitals with clinically diagnosed, highly probable or confirmed COVID-19 infection, with fewer than 14 days of symptoms, who were considered suitable for initial ambulatory management. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to azithromycin (500 mg once daily orally for 14 days) plus standard care or to standard care alone. The primary outcome was death or hospital admission from any cause over the 28 days from randomisation. The primary and safety outcomes were assessed according to the intention-to-treat principle. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04381962) and recruitment is closed. FINDINGS: 298 participants were enrolled from June 3, 2020, to Jan 29, 2021. Three participants withdrew consent and requested removal of all data, and three further participants withdrew consent after randomisation, thus, the primary outcome was assessed in 292 participants (145 in the azithromycin group and 147 in the standard care group). The mean age of the participants was 45·9 years (SD 14·9). 15 (10%) participants in the azithromycin group and 17 (12%) in the standard care group were admitted to hospital or died during the study (adjusted OR 0·91 [95% CI 0·43-1·92], p=0·80). No serious adverse events were reported. INTERPRETATION: In patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 managed without hospital admission, adding azithromycin to standard care treatment did not reduce the risk of subsequent hospital admission or death. Our findings do not support the use of azithromycin in patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, University of Oxford and Pfizer.
Study protocol: A multi-centre, double blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, parallel group, phase II trial (RIDD) to determine the efficacy of intra-nodular injection of anti-TNF to control disease progression in early Dupuytren's disease, with an embedded dose response study.
Dupuytren's disease is a common fibrotic condition of the hand affecting 4% of the population and causes the fingers to curl irreversibly into the palm. It has a strong familial tendency, there is no approved treatment for early stage disease, and patients with established digital contractures are most commonly treated by surgery. This is associated with prolonged recovery, and less invasive techniques have high recurrence rates. The myofibroblasts, the cells responsible for the excessive matrix deposition and contraction, are aggregated in nodules. Using excised diseased and control human tissue, we found that immune cells interspersed amongst the myofibroblasts secrete cytokines. Of these, only tumour necrosis factor (TNF) promoted the development of myofibroblasts. The clinically approved anti-TNF agents led to inhibition of the myofibroblast phenotype in vitro. This clinical trial is designed to assess the efficacy of the anti-TNF agent adalimumab on participants with early disease. The first part is a dose-ranging study where nodules of participants already scheduled for surgery will be injected with either placebo (saline) or varying doses of adalimumab. The excised tissue will then be analysed for markers of myofibroblast activity. The second part of the study will recruit participants with early stage disease. They will be randomised 1: 1 to receive either adalimumab or placebo at 3 month intervals over 1 year and will then be followed for a further 6 months. Outcome measures will include nodule hardness, size and disease progression. The trial will also determine the cost-effectiveness of adalimumb treatment for this group of participants.
Symptom flares in women with chronic pelvic pain: Questionnaire study within a cohort study (translational research in pelvic pain (TRiPP)).
OBJECTIVE: To quantify the variation, triggers and impact on quality of life of symptom flares in women with chronic pelvic pain (CPP). DESIGN: Cross-sectional questionnaire within the Translational Research in Pelvic Pain clinical cohort study. SETTING: Women with CPP, with subgroups of women with endometriosis (EAP), interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome (BPS), comorbid endometriosis and interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome (EABP), and those with pelvic pain without endometriosis or interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome (PP). POPULATION OR SAMPLE: A total of 100 participants. METHODS: Descriptive and comparative analysis from flares questionnaire. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The prevalence, characteristics and triggers of short, medium and long symptom flares in CPP. RESULTS: We received 100 responses of 104 questionnaires sent. Seventy-six per cent of women with CPP have ever experienced symptom flares of at least one length (short, medium and/or long). Flares are associated with painful and non-painful symptoms. There is large variation for the frequency, duration, symptoms and triggers for flares. Over 60% of participants reported flares as stopping them from doing things they would usually do, >80% reported thinking about symptoms of flares and >80% reported flares being bothersome. CONCLUSIONS: Flares are prevalent and clinically very important in CPP. More research is needed to elucidate the mechanisms and characteristics underlying flares. Clinical practice should include an enquiry into flares with the aim of finding strategies to lessen their burden.
Systemic low-grade inflammatory markers are associated with proximal spread of neuropathic symptoms
Neuropathic pain is a highly prevalent condition associated with persistent and severe disability. Some patients with neuropathic pain experience symptom spread outside neuroanatomical boundaries; these patients report more severe sensory symptoms and greater disability. However, the mechanisms behind such symptom spread are not fully understood. We used carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) as a human model system of neuropathic pain to identify differences in the concentration of serologic inflammatory mediators among patients with CTS with territorial symptoms and those with proximal symptom spread to either the elbow or shoulder/neck. We conducted Quade ANCOVA’s, corrected for multiple testing, to compare the three groups in two independent cohorts: a discovery and validation cohort. The discovery CTS cohort (n=55; n=25 no spread, n=21 spread to elbow, n=9 spread to shoulder/neck) revealed higher serum concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) in patients with any symptom spread proximal to the wrist; interferon-g (IFN-g) was higher in patients with symptom spread to the elbow compared to those without proximal symptom spread. The validation study (n=72; n=34 no spread, n=16 spread to elbow, n=22 spread to shoulder/neck) replicated the association of higher CRP concentrations in patients with proximal spread to the elbow (no spread: median [IQR] 2.5 [5.4]; spread to elbow 6.2 [4.6]; spread to shoulder/neck 2.6 [3.7], p=0.006). No other markers replicated in the validation cohort. Our findings suggest that proximal symptom spread in the context of neuropathic symptoms is associated with low-grade inflammation. Funded in whole, or in part, by the Wellcome Trust [222101/Z/20/Z].
Phase II clinical trial of six mercaptopurine (6MP) and methotrexate in patients with BRCA-defective tumors.
TPS5615 Background: BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes are critical in homologous recombination DNA repair and have been implicated in familial breast and ovarian cancer tumorigenesis. Tumor cells with these mutations demonstrate increased sensitivity to cisplatin and poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitors. 6MP was identified in a screen for novel drugs and found to selectively kill BRCA-defective cells in a xenograft model as effectively as the PARP inhibitor, AGO14699, even after these cells had acquired resistance to a PARP inhibitor or cisplatin (Issaeva 2010). Exploiting the genetic basis of these tumours enables us to develop a more tailored approach to therapy for patients with BRCA mutated cancers. This multi-center phase II single arm trial was set up to investigate the activity and safety of 6MP with methotrexate in patients with breast or ovarian cancer who are known to have a BRCA mutation. Methods: Two-stage Simon compromise design (Jung 2001, Jung 2004) with α=0.20, power=90% to detect an increase in activity from 10 to 20%. 1st stage: if ≤ 3/30 evaluable patients respond at 8 weeks the trial will be stopped for futility; 2nd stage: if ≥9/65 evaluable patients respond at 8 weeks the treatment will be regarded as potentially effective and a phase III trial will be considered if the treatment appears safe and well-tolerated. 65 patients with BRCA defective cancer progressing after at least one prior chemotherapy or relapsed platinum resistant ovarian cancer, ECOG performance status 0-2 will be recruited and treated with daily 6MP (75mg/m2 ) and weekly methotrexate (20mg/m2) until progression. The starting dose was later reduced by 25% due to excess of expected toxicity. Patients with low TPMT activity or a low/low genotype are excluded due to the risk of increased toxicity. Prior treatment with a PARP inhibitor is permissible. Primary outcome: objective response at 8 weeks: complete, partial response or stable disease defined by RECIST 1.1. Secondary outcomes include safety, PFS, OS and quality of life. Of the 46 patients screened for TMPT activity between 15 Jun2009 and 05Dec 2012 from 12 UK sites, 31 patients were recruited. The pre-specified activity goal for the 1st stage was met and accrual into the 2nd stage continues. Clinical trial information: 2009-016846-16.
Treatment of early oligoarticular psoriatic arthritis with apremilast: primary outcomes at week 16 from the FOREMOST randomised controlled trial
Objectives: Oligoarticular psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is frequent but rarely studied. The objective was to assess the efficacy of apremilast in early oligoarticular PsA. Methods: FOREMOST (NCT03747939) was a Phase 4 multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Patients had early (symptom duration ≤5 years) oligoarticular PsA (>1 but ≤4 swollen and >1 but ≤4 tender joints; 2-8 total active joints). Patients were randomised 2:1 to apremilast 30 mg twice daily or placebo for 24 weeks, with an early escape at Week 16. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients at Week 16 who achieved minimal disease activity (MDA)-Joints (modification of MDA mandating ≤1 swollen joint and ≤1 tender joint) based on sentinel joints (those affected at baseline) with a combination of non-responder imputation and multiple imputations. Exploratory analysis assessed all joints. Results: Of 308 patients randomised (apremilast: n=203; placebo: n=105), mean (standard deviation [SD]) PsA duration was 9.9 (10.2) months, mean (SD) age was 50.9 (12.5) years, and 39.9% of patients were using a csDMARD. MDA-Joints (sentinel joints [primary endpoint], all joints) was achieved by significantly more patients with apremilast (33.9% and 21.3%) vs placebo (16.0% and 7.9%) at Week 16 (P=0.0008 and nominal P=0.0028, respectively). Greater improvements in patient-reported outcomes, clinical disease activity, and skin involvement also were seen with apremilast vs placebo. Conclusions: FOREMOST is the first randomised controlled trial designed for early oligoarticular PsA and showed apremilast improves clinical and patient-reported outcomes. This trial may inform optimal management of PsA in these patients.
Computational mining of B cell receptor repertoires reveals antigen-specific and convergent responses to Ebola vaccination
Outbreaks of Ebolaviruses, such as Sudanvirus (SUDV) in Uganda in 2022, demonstrate that species other than the Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV), which is currently the sole virus represented in current licensed vaccines, remain a major threat to global health. There is a pressing need to develop effective pan-species vaccines and novel monoclonal antibody-based therapeutics for Ebolavirus disease. In response to recent outbreaks, the two dose, heterologous Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimen was developed and was tested in a large phase II clinical trial (EBL2001) as part of the EBOVAC2 consortium. Here, we perform bulk sequencing of the variable heavy chain (VH) of B cell receptors (BCR) in forty participants from the EBL2001 trial in order to characterize the BCR repertoire in response to vaccination with Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo. We develop a comprehensive database, EBOV-AbDab, of publicly available Ebolavirus-specific antibody sequences. We then use our database to predict the antigen-specific component of the vaccinee repertoires. Our results show striking convergence in VH germline gene usage across participants following the MVA-BN-Filo dose, and provide further evidence of the role of IGHV3–15 and IGHV3–13 antibodies in the B cell response to Ebolavirus glycoprotein. Furthermore, we found that previously described Ebola-specific mAb sequences present in EBOV-AbDab were sufficient to describe at least one of the ten most expanded BCR clonotypes in more than two thirds of our cohort of vaccinees following the boost, providing proof of principle for the utility of computational mining of immune repertoires.
At-admission prediction of mortality and pulmonary embolism in an international cohort of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 using statistical and machine learning methods.
By September 2022, more than 600 million cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been reported globally, resulting in over 6.5 million deaths. COVID-19 mortality risk estimators are often, however, developed with small unrepresentative samples and with methodological limitations. It is highly important to develop predictive tools for pulmonary embolism (PE) in COVID-19 patients as one of the most severe preventable complications of COVID-19. Early recognition can help provide life-saving targeted anti-coagulation therapy right at admission. Using a dataset of more than 800,000 COVID-19 patients from an international cohort, we propose a cost-sensitive gradient-boosted machine learning model that predicts occurrence of PE and death at admission. Logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards models, and Shapley values were used to identify key predictors for PE and death. Our prediction model had a test AUROC of 75.9% and 74.2%, and sensitivities of 67.5% and 72.7% for PE and all-cause mortality respectively on a highly diverse and held-out test set. The PE prediction model was also evaluated on patients in UK and Spain separately with test results of 74.5% AUROC, 63.5% sensitivity and 78.9% AUROC, 95.7% sensitivity. Age, sex, region of admission, comorbidities (chronic cardiac and pulmonary disease, dementia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, obesity, smoking), and symptoms (any, confusion, chest pain, fatigue, headache, fever, muscle or joint pain, shortness of breath) were the most important clinical predictors at admission. Age, overall presence of symptoms, shortness of breath, and hypertension were found to be key predictors for PE using our extreme gradient boosted model. This analysis based on the, until now, largest global dataset for this set of problems can inform hospital prioritisation policy and guide long term clinical research and decision-making for COVID-19 patients globally. Our machine learning model developed from an international cohort can serve to better regulate hospital risk prioritisation of at-risk patients.
Calculating the power of a planned individual participant data meta‐analysis to examine prognostic factor effects for a binary outcome
Collecting data for an individual participant data meta‐analysis (IPDMA) project can be time consuming and resource intensive and could still have insufficient power to answer the question of interest. Therefore, researchers should consider the power of their planned IPDMA before collecting IPD. Here we propose a method to estimate the power of a planned IPDMA project aiming to synthesise multiple cohort studies to investigate the (unadjusted or adjusted) effects of potential prognostic factors for a binary outcome. We consider both binary and continuous factors and provide a three‐step approach to estimating the power in advance of collecting IPD, under an assumption of the true prognostic effect of each factor of interest. The first step uses routinely available (published) aggregate data for each study to approximate Fisher's information matrix and thereby estimate the anticipated variance of the unadjusted prognostic factor effect in each study. These variances are then used in step 2 to estimate the anticipated variance of the summary prognostic effect from the IPDMA. Finally, step 3 uses this variance to estimate the corresponding IPDMA power, based on a two‐sided Wald test and the assumed true effect. Extensions are provided to adjust the power calculation for the presence of additional covariates correlated with the prognostic factor of interest (by using a variance inflation factor) and to allow for between‐study heterogeneity in prognostic effects. An example is provided for illustration, and Stata code is supplied to enable researchers to implement the method.
Emergency medical services utilisation among febrile children attending emergency departments across Europe: an observational multicentre study.
Children constitute 6-10% of all patients attending the emergency department (ED) by emergency medical services (EMS). However, discordant EMS use in children occurs in 37-61% with fever as an important risk factor. We aimed to describe EMS utilisation among febrile children attending European EDs. This study is part of an observational multicentre study assessing management and outcome in febrile children up to 18 years (MOFICHE) attending twelve EDs in eight European countries. Discordant EMS use was defined as the absence of markers of urgency including intermediate/high triage urgency, advanced diagnostics, treatment, and admission in children transferred by EMS. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed for the association between (1) EMS use and markers of urgency, and (2) patient characteristics and discordant EMS use after adjusting all analyses for the covariates age, gender, visiting hours, presenting symptoms, and ED setting. A total of 5464 (15%, range 0.1-42%) children attended the ED by EMS. Markers of urgency were more frequently present in the EMS group compared with the non-EMS group. Discordant EMS use occurred in 1601 children (29%, range 1-59%). Age and gender were not associated with discordant EMS use, whereas neurological symptoms were associated with less discordant EMS use (aOR 0.2, 95%CI 0.1-0.2), and attendance out of office hours was associated with more discordant EMS use (aOR 1.6, 95%CI 1.4-1.9). Settings with higher percentage of self-referrals to the ED had more discordant EMS use (p
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Incidence and Short-Term Survival for Common Solid Tumours in the United Kingdom: A Cohort Analysis.
PURPOSE: The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly affected healthcare systems and patients. There is a need to comprehend the collateral effects of the pandemic on non-communicable diseases. We examined the impact of the pandemic on short-term survival for common solid tumours, including breast, colorectal, head and neck, liver, lung, oesophageal, pancreatic, prostate, and stomach cancer in the UK. METHODS: This was a population-based cohort study of electronic health records from the UK primary care Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database. In sum, 12,259,744 eligible patients aged ≥18 years with ≥1 year's history identified from January 2000 to December 2022 were included. We estimated age-standardised incidence and short-term (one- and two-year) survival for several common cancers from 2000 to 2019 (in five-year strata) and compared these to 2020-2022 using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Incidence decreased for most cancers in 2020 and recovered to different extents in 2021-2022. Short-term survival improved for most cancers between 2000 and 2019, but then declined, albeit minimally, for those diagnosed in 2020-2022. This was most pronounced for colorectal cancer, with one-year survival falling from 78.8% (95% CI 78%-79.6%) in 2015-2019 to 77% (95% CI 75.6-78.3%) for those diagnosed in 2020-2022. CONCLUSION: Short-term survival for many cancers was impacted, albeit minimally, by the pandemic in the UK, with reductions in survivorship from colorectal cancer equivalent to returning to the mortality seen in the first decade of the 2000s. While data on longer-term survival are needed to fully comprehend the impact of COVID-19 on cancer care, our findings illustrate the need for an urgent and substantial commitment from the UK National Health Service to address the existing backlog in cancer screening and diagnostic procedures to improve cancer care and mortality.
A systematic literature review on patient-reported outcome domains and measures in nonsurgical efficacy trials related to chronic pain associated with endometriosis: an urgent call to action.
Endometriosis, a common cause for chronic pelvic pain, significantly affects quality of life, fertility, and overall productivity of those affected. Therapeutic options remain limited, and collating evidence on treatment efficacy is complicated. One reason could be the heterogeneity of assessed outcomes in nonsurgical clinical trials, impeding meaningful result comparisons. This systematic literature review examines outcome domains and patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) used in clinical trials. Through comprehensive search of Embase, MEDLINE, and CENTRAL up until July 2022, we screened 1286 records, of which 191 were included in our analyses. Methodological quality (GRADE criteria), information about publication, patient population, and intervention were assessed, and domains as well as PROMs were extracted and analyzed. In accordance with IMMPACT domain framework, the domain pain was assessed in almost all studies (98.4%), followed by adverse events (73.8%). By contrast, assessment of physical functioning (29.8%), improvement and satisfaction (14.1%), and emotional functioning (6.8%) occurred less frequently. Studies of a better methodological quality tended to use more different domains. Nevertheless, combinations of more than 2 domains were rare, failing to comprehensively capture the bio-psycho-social aspects of endometriosis-associated pain. The PROMs used showed an even broader heterogeneity across all studies. Our findings underscore the large heterogeneity of assessed domains and PROMs in clinical pain-related endometriosis trials. This highlights the urgent need for a standardized approach to both, assessed domains and high-quality PROMs ideally realized through development and implementation of a core outcome set, encompassing the most pivotal domains and PROMs for both, stakeholders and patients.
Reporting of surrogate endpoints in randomised controlled trial protocols (SPIRIT-Surrogate): extension checklist with explanation and elaboration.
Randomised controlled trials often use surrogate endpoints to substitute for a target outcome (an outcome of direct interest and relevance to trial participants, clinicians, and other stakeholders—eg, all cause mortality) to improve efficiency (through shortened duration of follow-up, reduced sample size, and lower research costs), and for ethical or practical reasons. However, their use has a fundamental limitation in terms of uncertainty of the intervention effect on the target outcome and limited information on potential intervention harms. There have been increasing calls for improved reporting of trial protocols that use surrogate endpoints. This report presents the SPIRIT-Surrogate, an extension of the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials (SPIRIT) checklist, a consensus driven reporting guideline designed for trial protocols using surrogate endpoints as the primary outcome(s). The SPIRIT-Surrogate extension includes nine items modified from the SPIRIT 2013 checklist. The guideline provides examples and explanations for each item. We recommend that all stakeholders (including trial investigators and sponsors, research ethics reviewers, funders, journal editors, and peer reviewers) use this extension in reporting trial protocols that use surrogate endpoints. Its use will allow for improved design of such trials, improved transparency, and interpretation of findings when trials are completed, and ultimately reduced research waste.
Reporting of surrogate endpoints in randomised controlled trial reports (CONSORT-Surrogate): extension checklist with explanation and elaboration.
Randomised controlled trials commonly use surrogate endpoints to substitute for a target outcome (outcome of direct interest and relevance to trial participants, clinicians, and other stakeholders—eg, all cause mortality) to improve their efficiency (through shorter trial duration, reduced sample size, and thus lower research costs), or for ethical or practical reasons. But reliance on surrogate endpoints can increase the uncertainty of an intervention’s treatment effect and potential failure to provide adequate information on intervention harms, which has led to calls for improved reporting of trials using surrogate endpoints. This report presents a consensus driven reporting guideline for trials using surrogate endpoints as the primary outcomes—the CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) extension checklist: CONSORT-Surrogate. The extension includes nine items modified from the CONSORT 2010 checklist and two new items. Examples and explanations for each item are provided. We recommend that all stakeholders (including trial investigators and sponsors, journal editors and peer reviewers, research ethics reviewers, and funders) use this extension in reporting trial reports using surrogate endpoints. Use of this checklist will improve transparency, interpretation, and usefulness of trial findings, and ultimately reduce research waste.