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PRImary care Streptococcal Management (PRISM) study: identifying clinical variables associated with Lancefield group A β-haemolytic streptococci and Lancefield non-Group A streptococcal throat infections from two cohorts of patients presenting with an acute sore throat.
OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between features of acute sore throat and the growth of streptococci from culturing a throat swab. DESIGN: Diagnostic cohort. SETTING: UK general practices. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged 5 or over presenting with an acute sore throat. Patients were recruited for a second cohort (cohort 2, n=517) consecutively after the first (cohort 1, n=606) from similar practices. MAIN OUTCOME: Predictors of the presence of Lancefield A/C/G streptococci. RESULTS: The clinical score developed from cohort 1 had poor discrimination in cohort 2 (bootstrapped estimate of area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve (0.65), due to the poor validity of the individual items in the second data set. Variables significant in multivariate analysis in both cohorts were rapid attendance (prior duration 3 days or less; multivariate adjusted OR 1.92 cohort, 1.67 cohort 2); fever in the last 24 h (1.69, 2.40); and doctor assessment of severity (severely inflamed pharynx/tonsils (2.28, 2.29)). The absence of coryza or cough and purulent tonsils were significant in univariate analysis in both cohorts and in multivariate analysis in one cohort. A five-item score based on Fever, Purulence, Attend rapidly (3 days or less), severely Inflamed tonsils and No cough or coryza (FeverPAIN) had moderate predictive value (bootstrapped area under the ROC curve 0.73 cohort 1, 0.71 cohort 2) and identified a substantial number of participants at low risk of streptococcal infection (38% in cohort 1, 36% in cohort 2 scored ≤1, associated with a streptococcal percentage of 13% and 18%, respectively). A Centor score of ≤1 identified 23% and 26% of participants with streptococcal percentages of 10% and 28%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Items widely used to help identify streptococcal sore throat may not be the most consistent. A modified clinical scoring system (FeverPAIN) which requires further validation may be clinically helpful in identifying individuals who are unlikely to have major pathogenic streptococci.
An unsupervised learning model for pattern recognition in routinely collected healthcare data
This study examines a large routinely collected healthcare database containing patient-level self-reported outcomes following knee replacement surgery. A model based on unsupervised machine learning methods, including k-means and hierarchical clustering, is proposed to detect patterns of pain experienced by patients and to derive subgroups of patients with different outcomes based on their pain characteristics. Results showed the presence of between two and four different sub-groups of patients based on their pain characteristics. Challenges associated with unsupervised learning using real-world data are described and an approach for evaluating models in the presence of unlabelled data using internal and external cluster evaluation techniques is presented, that can be extended to other unsupervised learning applications within healthcare and beyond. To our knowledge, this is the first study proposing an unsupervised learning model for characterising pain-based patient subgroups using the UK NHS PROMs database.
Incidence of shoulder dislocations in the UK, 1995-2015: a population-based cohort study.
OBJECTIVE: This cohort study evaluates the unknown age-specific and gender-specific incidence of primary shoulder dislocations in the UK. SETTING: UK primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) were used to identify patients aged 16-70 years with a shoulder dislocation during 1995-2015. Coding of primary shoulder dislocations was validated using the CPRD general practitioner questionnaire service. PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of 16 763 patients with shoulder dislocation aged 16-70 years during 1995-2015 were identified. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence rates per 100 000 person-years and 95% CIs were calculated. RESULTS: Correct coding of shoulder dislocation within CPRD was 89% (95% CI 83% to 95%), and confirmation that the dislocation was a 'primary' was 76% (95% CI 67% to 85%). Seventy-two percent of shoulder dislocations occurred in men. The overall incidence rate in men was 40.4 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 40.4 to 40.4), and in women was 15.5 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 15.5 to 15.5). The highest incidence was observed in men aged 16-20 years (80.5 per 100 000 person-years; 95% CI 80.5 to 80.6). Incidence in women increased with age to a peak of 28.6 per 100 000 person-years among those aged 61-70 years. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first time the incidence of shoulder dislocations has been studied using primary care data from a national database, and the first time the results for the UK have been produced. While most primary dislocations occurred in young men, an unexpected finding was that the incidence increased in women aged over 50 years, but not in men. The reasons for this are unknown. Further work is commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research to examine treatments and predictors for recurrent shoulder dislocation. STUDY REGISTRATION: The design of this study was approved by the Independent Scientific Advisory Committee (15_260) for the Medicines & Healthcare products Regulatory Agency.
An Oxford knee score cut-off point to identify patients with chronic pain after knee replacement for a complex intervention trial
About 20% of patients who undergo primary total knee replacement (TKR) surgery in the UK experience chronic pain after their operation. The provision of healthcare services for these patients has been found to be patchy and inconsistent in the NHS. Although chronic pain is understood to be pain persisting for several months, the level that pain must persist for a patient to be considered in chronic pain is not defined. The aim of this work was to identify a cut-off point in the pain component subscale of the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) that could be used to identify patients in chronic pain following a primary TKR.
Quality of life in adults with X-linked hypophosphataemia (XLH): Preservation of emotional well-being despite significant limitations in physical domains
We aimed to describe the quality of life of adult patients with X-linked hypophosphataemia (XLH) using the SF-36 measure and to compare it to patients with osteoarthritis (OA) and United Kingdom population norms.
Persistent knee pain after total knee replacement: Patient- reported outcomes from a dual-centre English cohort study
We aimed to compare patient-reported outcomes measures (PROMs) between individuals with and without persistent pain (PP) one year after total knee replacement (TKR).
Rheumatoid factor testing in Spanish primary care: A population-based cohort study including 4.8 million subjects and almost half a million measurements.
OBJECTIVE: Rheumatoid factor (RF) testing is used in primary care in the diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA); however a positive RF may occur without RA. Incorrect use of RF testing may lead to increased costs and delayed diagnoses. The aim was to assess the performance of RF as a test for RA and to estimate the costs associated with its use in a primary care setting. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using the Information System for the Development of Research in Primary Care database (contains primary care records and laboratory results of >80% of the Catalonian population, Spain). Participants were patients ≥18 years with ≥1 RF test performed between 01/01/2006 and 31/12/2011, without a pre-existing diagnosis of RA. Outcome measures were an incident diagnosis of RA within 1 year of testing, and the cost of testing per case of RA. RESULTS: 495,434/4,796,498 (10.3%) patients were tested at least once. 107,362 (21.7%) of those tested were sero-positive of which 2768 (2.6%) were diagnosed with RA within 1 year as were 1141/388,072 (0.3%) sero-negative participants. The sensitivity of RF was 70.8% (95% CI 69.4-72.2), specificity 78.7% (78.6-78.8), and positive and negative predictive values 2.6% (2.5-2.7) and 99.7% (99.6-99.7) respectively. Approximately €3,963,472 was spent, with a cost of €1432 per true positive case. CONCLUSIONS: Although 10% of patients were tested for RF, most did not have RA. Limiting testing to patients with a higher pre-test probability would significantly reduce the cost of testing.
Evidence for current recommendations concerning the management of foot health for people with chronic long-term conditions: a systematic review.
BACKGROUND: Research focusing on management of foot health has become more evident over the past decade, especially related to chronic conditions such as diabetes. The level of methodological rigour across this body of work however is varied and outputs do not appear to have been developed or translated into clinical practice. The aim of this systematic review was to assess the latest guidelines, standards of care and current recommendations relative to people with chronic conditions to ascertain the level of supporting evidence concerning the management of foot health. METHODS: A systematic search of electronic databases (Medline, Embase, Cinahl, Web of Science, SCOPUS and The Cochrane Library) for literature on recommendations for foot health management for people with chronic conditions was performed between 2000 and 2016 using predefined criteria. Data from the included publications was synthesised via template analysis, employing a thematic organisation and structure. The methodological quality of all included publications was appraised using the Appraisal for Research and Evaluation (AGREE II) instrument. A more in-depth analysis was carried out that specifically considered the levels of evidence that underpinned the strength of their recommendations concerning management of foot health. RESULTS: The data collected revealed 166 publications in which the majority (102) were guidelines, standards of care or recommendations related to the treatment and management of diabetes. We noted a trend towards a systematic year on year increase in guidelines standards of care or recommendations related to the treatment and management of long term conditions other than diabetes over the past decade. The most common recommendation is for preventive care or assessments (e.g. vascular tests), followed by clinical interventions such as foot orthoses, foot ulcer care and foot health education. Methodological quality was spread across the range of AGREE II scores with 62 publications falling into the category of high quality (scores 6-7). The number of publications providing a recommendation in the context of a narrative but without an indication of the strength or quality of the underlying evidence was high (79 out of 166). CONCLUSIONS: It is clear that evidence needs to be accelerated and in place to support the future of the Podiatry workforce. Whilst high level evidence for podiatry is currently low in quantity, the methodological quality is growing. Where levels of evidence have been given in in high quality guidelines, standards of care or recommendations, they also tend to be strong-moderate quality such that further strategically prioritised research, if performed, is likely to have an important impact in the field.
Patient characteristics and the lifetime risk of revision following knee and hip replacement: evidence from routinely-collected data
Revision surgery following joint replacement is associated with both morbidity for patients and high costs for the health care system. The impact of patient characteristics on the lifetime risk of revision, however, is not well-known.
The impact of rheumatoid arthritis on the risk of adverse events following joint replacement: a real-world cohort study.
PURPOSE: To assess whether rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is associated with a greater risk of adverse events following total knee replacement (TKR) and total hip replacement (THR) than osteoarthritis (OA). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Individuals with a diagnosis of RA or OA were identified using primary care records. TKR and THR following diagnosis were identified using linked hospital records. Myocardial infarction (MI), prosthetic joint infection (PJI), venous thromboembolism (VTE), and death were identified within 90 days following surgery, and revision procedures over 10 years following surgery. The impact of RA compared to OA on the risk for these adverse events was assessed using Cox proportional hazard models. Univariable models, with diagnosis as the only explanatory variable, and multivariable models, with age, gender, and year of surgery first added and then a measure of other comorbidities also included, were estimated. RESULTS: In all 20,763 individuals, with 10,260 TKR and 10,961 THR, were included in the analysis. Compared to those with OA, individuals with a diagnosis of RA had a greater incidence of MI over 90 days following TKR (OA: 0.28%, RA: 0.75%) and revision over 10 years following THR (OA: 5.55%, RA: 8.68%). Both of these differences were statistically significant with, for example, hazard ratios of 3.54 (1.44 to 8.73) for MI and 1.61 (1.06 to 2.46) for revision after controlling for age, gender, year of surgery, and other comorbidities. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that, compared to individuals with OA, those with RA have an increased short-term risk of MI following TKR. While risk of MI remains below 1%, this does underline the importance of the management of cardiovascular risk factors for those with RA. RA was also associated with an increased long-term risk of revision following THR, which strengthens the argument for investing in therapies which may prevent the need for joint replacement.
Cost-effectiveness of unicompartmental compared with total knee replacement: a population-based study using data from the National Joint Registry for England and Wales.
OBJECTIVES: To assess the value for money of unicompartmental knee replacement (UKR) compared with total knee replacement (TKR). DESIGN: A lifetime Markov model provided the framework for the analysis. SETTING: Data from the National Joint Registry (NJR) for England and Wales primarily informed the analysis. PARTICIPANTS: Propensity score matched patients in the NJR who received either a UKR or TKR. INTERVENTIONS: UKR is a less invasive alternative to TKR, where only the compartment affected by osteoarthritis is replaced. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and healthcare system costs. RESULTS: The provision of UKR is expected to lead to a gain in QALYs compared with TKR for all age and gender subgroups (male: <60 years: 0.12, 60-75 years: 0.20, 75+ years: 0.19; female: <60 years: 0.10, 60-75 years: 0.28, 75+ years: 0.44) and a reduction in costs (male: <60: £-1223, 60-75 years: £-1355, 75+ years: £-2005; female: <60 years: £-601, 60-75 years: £-935, 75+ years: £-1102 per patient over the lifetime). UKR is expected to lead to a reduction in QALYs compared with TKR when performed by surgeons with low UKR utilisation but an increase among those with high utilisation (<10%, median 6%: -0.04, ≥10%, median 27%: 0.26). Regardless of surgeon usage, costs associated with UKR are expected to be lower than those of TKR (<10%: £-127, ≥10%: £-758). CONCLUSIONS: UKR can be expected to generate better health outcomes and lower lifetime costs than TKR. Surgeon usage of UKR does, however, have a significant impact on the cost-effectiveness of the procedure. To achieve the best results, surgeons need to perform a sufficient proportion of knee replacements as UKR. Low usage surgeons may therefore need to broaden their indications for UKR.
Progression of chronic pain and associated health-related quality of life and healthcare resource use over 5 years after total knee replacement: evidence from a cohort study.
OBJECTIVE: As part of the STAR Programme, a comprehensive study exploring long-term pain after surgery, we investigated how pain and function, health-related quality of life (HRQL), and healthcare resource use evolved over 5 years after total knee replacement (TKR) for those with and without chronic pain 1 year after their primary surgery. METHODS: We used data from the Clinical Outcomes in Arthroplasty Study prospective cohort study, which followed patients undergoing TKR from two English hospitals for 5 years. Chronic pain was defined using the Oxford Knee Score Pain Subscale (OKS-PS) where participants reporting a score of 14 or lower were classified as having chronic pain 1-year postsurgery. Pain and function were measured with the OKS, HRQL using the EuroQoL-5 Dimension, resource use from yearly questionnaires, and costs estimated from a healthcare system perspective. We analysed the changes in OKS-PS, HRQL and resource use over a 5-year follow-up period. Multiple imputation accounted for missing data. RESULTS: Chronic pain was reported in 70/552 operated knees (12.7%) 1 year after surgery. The chronic pain group had worse pain, function and HRQL presurgery and postsurgery than the non-chronic pain group. Those without chronic pain markedly improved right after surgery, then plateaued. Those with chronic pain improved slowly but steadily. Participants with chronic pain reported greater healthcare resource use and costs than those without, especially 1 year after surgery, and mostly from hospital readmissions. 64.7% of those in chronic pain recovered during the following 4 years, while 30.9% fluctuated in and out of chronic pain. CONCLUSION: Although TKR is often highly beneficial, some patients experienced chronic pain postsurgery. Although many fluctuated in their pain levels and most recovered over time, identifying people most likely to have chronic pain and supporting their recovery would benefit patients and healthcare systems.