Gary Collins
PhD
Honorary departmental professor
- Professor of Medical Statistics, University of Birmingham
- 125th Anniversary Chair, University of Birmingham
- Director of the EQUATOR Network, University of Birmingham
- NIHR Senior Investigator
RESEARCH
Gary's research interests are primarily focused on methodological aspects surrounding the development and evaluation multivariable prediction models and he has published extensively in this area.
Gary led an international initiative to develop guidance for studies using artificial intelligence and machine learning (TRIPOD+AI). He has also been involved in other guidance for reporting artificial intelligence/machine learning studies including CONSORT-AI / SPIRIT-AI (for reporting AI intervention studies), STARD-AI (for reporting AI based diagnostic test accuracy studies), and DECIDE-AI (bridging the development-implementation gap). He is also involved in developed risk of bias tools for machine learning diagnostic test accuracy studies (QUADAS-AI) and prediction model studies (PROBAST+AI). Gary is also involved with colleagues from the University of Southern California developing guidance for the responsible use of large language models such as ChatGPT for research (the CANGARU guidelines) and with colleagues from McMaster University for developing reporting guidance on studies evaluating chatbots for providing medical advice (CHART guideline).
Gary was involved in the development of numerous other reporting guidelines including the GATHER statement for reporting global health estimates (published in the Lancet and PLoS Medicine), and the AGReMA statement for reporting mediation analyses, published in JAMA. More recently he was involved in updating the SPIRIT and CONSORT guidelines for clinical trials. Gary is also a steering group member of the international STRATOS Initiative, which aims to provide accessible and accurate guidance in the design and analysis of observational studies, and currently sits on the external advisory board for the Centre for Open Science Transparency and Openness Promotion Guidelines
Recent publications
Sample size in multistakeholder Delphi surveys: at what minimum sample size do replicability of results stabilize?
Journal article
Manyara AM. et al, (2024), J Clin Epidemiol, 174
Metrics reloaded: recommendations for image analysis validation.
Journal article
Maier-Hein L. et al, (2024), Nat Methods, 21, 195 - 212
Publishers' and journals' instructions to authors on use of generative artificial intelligence in academic and scientific publishing: bibliometric analysis.
Journal article
Ganjavi C. et al, (2024), BMJ, 384
Global, regional, and national burden of low back pain, 1990-2020, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Journal article
GBD 2021 Low Back Pain Collaborators ., (2023), Lancet Rheumatol, 5, e316 - e329
Transparent reporting of multivariable prediction models developed or validated using clustered data: TRIPOD-Cluster checklist.
Journal article
Debray TPA. et al, (2023), BMJ, 380
Burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
Journal article
Safiri S. et al, (2022), BMJ, 378
Burden of ischemic heart disease and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019.
Journal article
Safiri S. et al, (2022), Eur J Prev Cardiol, 29, 420 - 431
Global, regional, and national burden of migraine in 204 countries and territories, 1990 to 2019.
Journal article
Safiri S. et al, (2022), Pain, 163, e293 - e309
Global burden of lower respiratory infections during the last three decades.
Journal article
Safiri S. et al, (2022), Front Public Health, 10
Prevalence, Deaths and Disability-Adjusted-Life-Years (DALYs) Due to Type 2 Diabetes and Its Attributable Risk Factors in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990-2019: Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
Journal article
Safiri S. et al, (2022), Front Endocrinol (Lausanne), 13
Burden of anemia and its underlying causes in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
Journal article
Safiri S. et al, (2021), J Hematol Oncol, 14
quality assessment tool for artificial intelligence-centered diagnostic test accuracy studies: QUADAS-AI.
Journal article
Sounderajah V. et al, (2021), Nat Med, 27, 1663 - 1665
Minimum sample size for external validation of a clinical prediction model with a binary outcome.
Journal article
Riley RD. et al, (2021), Stat Med, 40, 4230 - 4251
Prevalence, Deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years Due to Musculoskeletal Disorders for 195 Countries and Territories 1990-2017.
Journal article
Safiri S. et al, (2021), Arthritis Rheumatol, 73, 702 - 714