Research groups
Colleges
Stephen Gerry
BSc, MSc
Senior Medical Statistician and NIHR Doctoral Research Fellow
Based in the Centre for Statistics in Medicine (CSM), I investigate the use of statistical methods to develop and test early warning scores. These scores combine a patient's routinely measured vital signs, such as their blood pressure and heart rate, in an algorithm to identify patients at risk of deteriorating. Hospital staff almost universally across the NHS use these scores every day. As vital signs are increasingly recorded electronically instead of on paper charts, we have a great opportunity to improve the algorithms. In collaboration with other statisticians and doctors, I hope to develop better and more sophisticated algorithms, so that more patients will be prevented from unnecessary harm and hospital staff's time will be used more efficiently. This doctoral research project is funded by the NIHR Doctoral Research Fellowship Programme.
My broad research interests are statistical analysis and statistical methodology in prediction modelling and randomised clinical trials. I have several years’ experience working as a trial statistician, providing support to several clinical trials. These include studies such as ART (the Arterial Revascularisation Trial), with 5-year interim results recently published in the New England Journal of Medicine; RAMPP (Randomised Ambulatory Management of Primary Pneumothorax); and RESPECT-Meso (Regular Early SPEcialist symptom Control Treatment on quality of life in malignant Mesothelioma).
I teach on CSM’s annual Randomised Controlled Trials course. I sit on the London Central Research Ethics Committee, and as an independent member on several Data Monitoring and Trial Steering Committees.
I joined CSM in 2012, after working at the Wales Cancer Trials Unit in Cardiff. Prior to this, I studied mathematics and medical statistics in Southampton.
Key publications
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Early warning scores for detecting deterioration in adult hospital patients: a systematic review protocol.
Journal article
Gerry S. et al, (2017), Bmj open, 7
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A ward-based time study of paper and electronic documentation for recording vital sign observations.
Journal article
Wong D. et al, (2017), J am med inform assoc, 24, 717 - 721
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Prediction models for cardiovascular disease risk in the general population: systematic review.
Journal article
Damen JAAG. et al, (2016), Bmj, 353
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Randomized Trial of Bilateral versus Single Internal-Thoracic-Artery Grafts.
Journal article
Taggart DP. et al, (2016), N engl j med, 375, 2540 - 2549
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A meta-analysis of temporal changes of response in the placebo arm of surgical randomized controlled trials: an update.
Journal article
Wartolowska KA. et al, (2017), Trials, 18
Recent publications
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Reference charts for first-trimester placental volume derived using OxNNet.
Journal article
Mathewlynn S. et al, (2025), Ultrasound obstet gynecol
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Is age associated with different vital signs in adults presenting to hospital with bacterial infection? A systematic review and meta-analysis.
Journal article
Tupper P. et al, (2025), Age ageing, 54
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Maternal early warning scores shown to be methodologically weak and at high risk of bias.
Journal article
Jones MC. et al, (2025), J clin epidemiol
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Oxygen therapy in early warning scores: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Journal article
Harrison CH. et al, (2025), Thorax
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Severe Maternal Morbidity in the High Income Setting: a Systematic Review of Composite Definitions
Journal article
Henderson I. et al, (2025), Plos medicine