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The purpose of this study was to ascertain whether biochemical markers of bone turnover predict bone loss. The survey was carried out in Taiji, Wakayama Prefecture, Japan. From a list of inhabitants aged 40-79 years, 400 participants (50 men and 50 women in each of four age groups) were selected randomly. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured, and blood and urine samples of all participants were examined to obtain values for eight biochemical markers: alkaline phosphatase (ALP), bone Gla protein (BGP), type I procollagen (carboxyterminal peptide of type I procollagen; PICP), cross-linked carboxyterminal telopeptide region of type I collagen (ICTP), and urinary excretion of calcium (Ca), phosphate (P), pyridinoline (Pyr), and deoxypyridinoline (D-Pyr). Each marker was evaluated as a predictor of the rate of bone change in lumbar spine and femoral neck BMD over a 3-year period. The value of Pyr was significantly related to the change of lumbar spine BMD in men (P = 0.009), and that of BGP was found to be significant in women (P = 0.045). By contrast, none of the bone markers significantly correlated with bone loss at the femoral neck. The coefficient of determination at the lumbar spine was 5% and 7% at the femoral neck only. We conclude that biochemical markers of bone turnover cannot predict bone loss rates in middle-aged or elderly Japanese men and women over a 3-year period with sufficient accuracy for use in clinical decision making.


Journal article


Calcif tissue int

Publication Date





198 - 202


Adult, Aged, Biomarkers, Bone Density, Bone and Bones, Female, Femur Neck, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Japan, Lumbar Vertebrae, Male, Middle Aged, Osteoporosis