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OBJECTIVE: To present a long-term policy model of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in moderate-to-advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS: A Markov model with transitions between CKD stages (3B, 4, 5, on dialysis, with kidney transplant) and cardiovascular events (major atherosclerotic events, haemorrhagic stroke, vascular death) was developed with individualised CKD and CVD risks estimated using the 5 years' follow-up data of the 9270 patients with moderate-to-severe CKD in the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) and multivariate parametric survival analysis. The model was assessed in three further CKD cohorts and compared with currently used risk scores. RESULTS: Higher age, previous cardiovascular events and advanced CKD were the main contributors to increased individual disease risks. CKD and CVD risks predicted by the state-transition model corresponded well to risks observed in SHARP and external cohorts. The model's predictions of vascular risk and progression to end-stage renal disease were better than, or comparable to, those produced by other risk scores. As an illustration, at age 60-69 years, projected survival for SHARP participants in CKD stage 3B was 13.5 years (10.6 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)) in men and 14.8 years (10.7 QALYs) in women. Corresponding projections for participants on dialysis were 7.5 (5.6 QALYs) and 7.8 years (5.4 QALYs). A non-fatal major atherosclerotic event reduced life expectancy by about 2 years in stage 3B and by 1 year in dialysis. CONCLUSIONS: The SHARP CKD-CVD model is a novel resource for evaluating health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of interventions in CKD. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00125593 and ISRCTN54137607; Post-results.

Original publication




Journal article



Publication Date





1880 - 1890


CKD progression, cardiovascular risk, chronic kidney disease, life expectancy, markov model, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Cardiovascular Diseases, Computer Simulation, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Decision Support Techniques, Disease Progression, Female, Health Care Costs, Humans, Kaplan-Meier Estimate, Male, Markov Chains, Middle Aged, Models, Economic, Multivariate Analysis, Policy Making, Predictive Value of Tests, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Renal Dialysis, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Time Factors, Treatment Outcome