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Maria Vazquez Montes

PhD, MSc, BSc

Senior Statistician

Applying modelling strategies to medical research

My current research interest focus on diagnostic, prognostic and risk prediction modelling. I disseminate good practice, create examples of methodologically sound model developments and validations, critically appraise existing models, and apply recent meta-analysis methods to summarize their prediction performance.

Current projects

Recurrent urinary tract infection affects a large number of women impacting their lives, from experiencing severe symptoms to relationship difficulties and systemic illness. I am using big data (Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and Infections in Oxfordshire Research Database (IORD)) to help improving the diagnosis and management of this condition in women 16 and older.

Using Sweden population data, I am also collaborating on the development and validation of tools for the risk assessment of repeat self-harm and suicide in people presenting with self-harm at an Emergency Department. The tools incorporate demographic, clinical, mental health, family history, and criminal records information. Accuracy to predict short and long-term outcomes is being assessed. Further assessment of the validity and accuracy of these tools in different settings and populations will be required. 


I have provided statistical expertise in medical studies in mental health, online learning, ophthalmology, chronic diseases (diabetes, kidney disease, cancer), and hearth failure, using a variety of statistical methods (e.g. statistical control process, latent class analysis, multilevel modelling, propensity score methods, survival analysis). I am an ongoing collaborator of a systematic review of prognostic biomarker models for heart failure.

My teaching experience includes coordinating the online module Introduction to Statistics for Health Care Research on the Oxford Postgraduate Programme in Evidence-Based Health Care, tutoring for the Human Sciences Prelims module Introduction to Probability Theory and Statistics at St Hugh’s College, and for several modules in the MSc in Evidence Based Health Care and EBHC Medical Statistics.


Before joining the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences in 2008, I completed a PhD in Statistics at the University of Warwick (UK), a MSc in Statistics at Centro de Investigación en Matemáticas/Universidad de Guanajuato (Mexico), and a BSc in Mathematics at the Universidad de Yucatan (Mexico).

I was on a part-time secondment to the Centre for Statistics in Medicine between 2013 and 2015 as an NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) Research Fellow, and then between 2017 and 2019, as a collaborator on the Prognostic Biomarkers in Heart Failure project, funded by the British Heart Foundation.