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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of QCancer® (Gastro-Oesophageal) for predicting the risk of undiagnosed gastro-oesophageal cancer in an independent UK cohort of patients from general practice records. DESIGN: Open cohort study to validate QCancer® (Gastro-Oesophageal) prediction model. Three hundred sixty-five practices from the United Kingdom contributing to The Health Improvement Network database. 2.1 million patients registered with a general practice surgery between 01 January 2000 and 30 June 2008, aged 30-84years (3.7 million person years) with 1766 gastro-oesophageal cancer cases. The outcome, gastro-oesophageal cancer was defined as incident diagnosis of gastro-oesophageal cancer during the 2years after study entry. RESULTS: The results from this independent and external validation of QCancer® (Gastro-Oesophageal) demonstrated good performance data on a large cohort of general practice patients. QCancer® (Gastro-Oesophageal) had very good discrimination with c-statistics of 0.93 and 0.94 for women and men respectively. QCancer® (Gastro-Oesophageal) was well calibrated across all tenths of risk and over all age ranges with predicted risks closely matching observed risks. QCancer® (Gastro-Oesophageal) explained 74.4% and 75.6% of the variation in men and women respectively. CONCLUSIONS: QCancer® (Gastro-Oesophageal) is a useful tool to identify undiagnosed gastro-oesophageal cancer in primary care in the United Kingdom.

Original publication




Journal article


Eur j cancer

Publication Date





1040 - 1048


Adult, Aged, Cohort Studies, Delayed Diagnosis, Diagnostic Errors, Early Detection of Cancer, Esophageal Neoplasms, General Practice, Humans, Incidence, Middle Aged, Predictive Value of Tests, Primary Health Care, Prognosis, Risk, Stomach Neoplasms, United Kingdom